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All on the Line

Essays on the mathematics of complex financial systems.

Depreciation schedules, megawatt economics, record probabilities, and the arithmetic underneath capital markets. Written by the Principal.

01 — Recent Essays

The column.

Published on Substack, LinkedIn, and Medium.

A solution derived from a necessary condition is not necessarily the solution.
Verification
The Price of Mistaking Necessity for Sufficiency
The limits of verification: proving a curve optimal took mathematics 135 years; one Saturday the market priced USDC’s gap at $1.7 billion.
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A company publishes its prices on purpose. It publishes its volumes by accident.
Intelligence
Gathering Financial Intelligence With Simple Math
A sequential identifier bridges a public price and a private volume. What London did to German tanks, and does to a loan book.
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The durable income statement of artificial intelligence is written per megawatt.
Infrastructure
AI Rents in Megawatts
Rent per kilowatt, refresh reserves, and why the megawatt, not the GPU, is the unit of AI economics.
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AI turned every layer of the stack into a product, except power.
Capital Cycles
The Last Monument in the AI Economy
The AI power race won't be won by the cleanest source or the fastest chip, but by whoever turns clean power into a product first.
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The same GPU can be obsolete, productive, and irreplaceable at the same time.
Accounting
The Useful Life of a Useful Life
Why the same GPU can be obsolete, productive, and irreplaceable at the same time, and what it means for D&A, margins, and AI economics.
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The math behind tennis records and ETF creation is the same.
Probability
Of Tennis Records and ETFs
Why does professional tennis produce a new record every week? The same combinatorics explains the explosion of ETFs.
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They show you the ten heads in a row. They never show you the thousand flips.
Risk
The Coin Always Lands Heads
When the denominator is hidden, any result can look like proof. Theranos knew it. So does every hedge fund with a three-year track record.
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The data is clear. If we keep focusing on data centers while neglecting the grid, AGI will remain science fiction.
Infrastructure

Ask Not if We Can Build AGI Models, Ask if We Can Power Them

AI infrastructure is funded. The grid is not. Why the physical constraint no one is pricing may determine whether AGI arrives on schedule.

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The arithmetic is the argument.